IMF edges up 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 Percentage

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday nudged its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from its July projection, as economies lifted by the artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom offset those hurt by the Middle East conflict.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, titled "Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices," the IMF projected global growth slowing from 3.5 percent in 2025 to 3.1 percent in 2026 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2027. The 2027 figure is unchanged from the July forecast and 0.2 percentage points higher than the April forecast.

The IMF's baseline assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens in March 2027, with conditions broadly returning to prewar levels by October 2027. Global headline inflation is now forecast to rise from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 4.7 percent in 2026 before easing back to 4.1 percent in 2027.